Просмотр архива за четверг, 14 сентября 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2017 Sep 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Sep 2017	074	019
15 Sep 2017	073	015
16 Sep 2017	073	006

Bulletin

The only sunspot group currently reported on the solar disk, Catania number 55, NOAA AR 2680, is unlikely to produce flaring activity above the B-level. No flares were reported in the past 24 hours. The proton event associated with the halo CME on September 10 is still ongoing.

A fast forward shock was detected in the solar wind by DSCOVR around 00:21 UT on September 14, with clear jumps of the solar wind speed, density, temperature, and the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude. The solar origin of the shock is unclear. The solar wind speed in the post- shock sheath region was around 390 km/s, so the departure from the Sun on September 10 in association with the limb full halo CME is possible. The IMF magnitude in the sheath did not exceed 8 nT, with the north-south IMF component fluctuating. Geomagnetic conditions remained quiet, with both NOAA Kp and Dourbes K indices equalling 2.

The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 410 km/s) solar wind flow. The increase of plasma density and the IMF magnitude in the last couple of hours may indicate the arrival of the interaction region between the slow and fast solar wind flows. The fast flow emanates from a low-latitude extension of the northern polar coronal hole, and its arrival can be expected later today. Active to minor storm conditions may be expected.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Sep 2017

Wolf number Catania	012
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	014
Estimated international sunspot number	015 - Based on 22 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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