Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 17 декабря 2017

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2017 Dec 17 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Dec 2017	071	036
18 Dec 2017	071	029
19 Dec 2017	071	015

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 5%. No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels. DSCOVR observed a disturbance in the solar wind around 21h UT on December 16. Since then, solar wind speed has increased to current values around 600 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was mainly directed away from the Sun and its magnitude has increased from about 4 nT before 21h UT to values up to about 16 nT. Bz was variable and was consistently below -5 nT from about 3:30 until 6:00 UT. The observed enhancement in solar wind conditions is probably due to the arrival of an expected high speed stream of a recurrent positive equatorial coronal hole. Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 5) were registered in the past 24 hours. Active to moderate storm conditions (K Dourbes = 4 to 6) are possible on December 17 and 18. Active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes = 4) are possible on December 19, with a chance for minor geomagnetic storm intervals (K Dourbes = 5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Dec 2017

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	071
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	003
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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