Просмотр архива за понедельник, 12 февраля 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2018 Feb 12 1304 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
12 Feb 2018	077	012
13 Feb 2018	078	012
14 Feb 2018	077	005

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C1.5 class flare. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dai; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence and cancellation, producing the C1.5-class flare, which peaked at 01:35 UT this morning (12-feb-2018). The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. Observations of coronal dimmings and EUV waves from EUV imagery yesterday at 20:40 UT (11-Feb-2018) and today at 01:41 UT suggests AR 2699 produced a couple of eruptions. Coronagraph imagery is currently unavailable to estimate the extent of any associated CMEs, and estimate a possible arrival time, but the source region is located near disk centre and any associated eruption may interact with the Earth. AR 2699 is expected to produce further flares and eruptions. The solar wind speed has increased from around 300 to 325 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 nT. The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-2 (NOAA) and local K index 0-3 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A small positive polarity coronal hole passed the central meridian a couple of days ago and may enhance solar wind speeds over the coming days. Evidence of a small eruption that occurred near disk centre this morning may indicate an eruption will enhance geomagnetic conditions in a few days. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 11 Feb 2018

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	001
Estimated international sunspot number	030 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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