Просмотр архива за среда, 14 февраля 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2018 Feb 14 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Feb 2018	076	005
15 Feb 2018	075	022
16 Feb 2018	074	013

Bulletin

Over the past 24 hours solar activity has been low. No significant flares have been recorded. Active Region (AR) 2699 (Mcintosh class:Dsi; Mag. type:Beta) has been most active, showing considerable flux emergence and cancellation. The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours. A halo CME was observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 01:25 UT on 2018-Feb-12. The CME has a projected speed of approximately 509 km/s and is anticipated to reach the Earth on 15-Feb-2018 at approximately 12:00 UT. Over the next 24 hours flaring activity is expected to be at the C-class level with a medium probability of M-class flares. The solar wind speed fluctuated around 325 km/s over the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field strength has remained around 5 nT. The Bz component was largely positive, fluctuating between -5 and +5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions ranged between Kp index 0-1 (NOAA) and local K index 0-2 (Dourbes) over the past 24 hours. A large positive polarity coronal hole just passed the central meridian and may enhance solar wind speeds at Earth in a couple of days. The above mentioned halo CME should reach the Earth around 15-Feb-2018 and may also enhance solar wind conditions. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 023, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Feb 2018

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	076
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	026 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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