Просмотр архива за суббота, 10 марта 2018

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2018 Mar 10 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Mar 2018	068	031
11 Mar 2018	068	031
12 Mar 2018	068	011

Bulletin

Solar X ray flux remained below B level and with no spotted regions on the visible disk chances for any flare occurrences remain very low.

No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

Proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

A recurrent large elongated negative polarity coronal hole just north of the equator is about to transit the central meridian.

Solar wind conditions became enhanced with an increase in density, speed and magnetic field from around 17:20UT. By 23:00 UT speed reached around 450 km/s and total magnetic field reached 15nT. The total magnetic field remained around 15 nT since then, while speed recovered to under 400 km/s. The Bz component of the magnetic field was consistently negative for a significant amount of time (down to -12nT, but currently -2 to -3 nT). The rotation of the magnetic field as also visible in a gradual shift of the magnetic field phi angle is indicative of the fact that this perturbation marks the passage of the ejecta of March 6 or 7. The timing of the event suggests that the ejecta of March 7 may still arrive later on and cause further perturbations later today or tomorrow. Afterwards, Solar wind conditions should slowly return to nominal with later the influence of the high speed stream of the elongated coronal hole expected from March 14 onwards.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (NOAA Kp 1-4), with the active periods related to the consistently negative values of Bz. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet to active, but should recover to quiet to unsettled on March 12.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Mar 2018

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	068
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	014
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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