Просмотр архива за пятница, 11 января 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2019 Jan 11 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jan 2019	069	008
12 Jan 2019	070	013
13 Jan 2019	071	022

Bulletin

The solar activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux remained below B-level, and the visible solar disc is spotless. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels.

Some few narrow and slow solar Coronal Mass Ejections have been observed at the limb but no Earth directed component has been identified. The greater than 10 MeV solar protons flux remained at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so.

The wind speed increased from nominal values around 360 km/s up to 515 km/s. Total interplanetary magnetic field strength reached 8.7 nT on Jan 11 around 06:30 UT. The southward magnetic component was between -7.0 and 4.7 nT with a longer negative period between 04.00 and 07:00 UT on Jan 11. This slight enhancement of the solar wind parameters is probably due to a small isolate equatorial coronal hole of negative polarity and ranging between latitudes -15 and -30 degrees that transited the central meridian on Jan 8. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the following days due to this coronal hole influence. The influence of the second equatorial coronal hole reaching the central meridian on Jan 9 is expected to enhance further the solar wind parameters on Jan 13.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet until Jan 11 at 06:00, then in response to the enhanced interplanetary magnetic field and prolonged periods of southward directed Bz component, the geomagnetic became unsettled. The geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain unsettled to active. Possible isolated minor storm conditions may be observed in the coming days, in particular, if the Bz component stays negative for longer periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jan 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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