Просмотр архива за среда, 20 февраля 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2019 Feb 20 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Feb 2019	070	010
21 Feb 2019	070	018
22 Feb 2019	070	008

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels. An A9.7 flare peaked at 04:24 UT and was related to the eruption of the filament in former active region NOAA 2733 between 04 and 05 UT. This filament is reshaping itself and is currently located near N10E00. Associated with this eruption was a narrow and very slow moving (190 km/s) coronal mass ejection (CME) with a potential earth-directed component (STEREO-A/COR2 imagery). A preliminary estimate of the CME arrival near Earth is 26 February. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal values.

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

Solar wind speed showed a generally declining trend from 340 km/s at the beginning of the period to 300 km/s at the end (DSCOVR). Bz ranged between -3 and +2 nT, with solar wind proton density gradually increasing to its current 10/cm3. The interplanetary magnetic field was mainly directed towards the Sun (negative sector). Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels.

Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected until the arrival of the co-rotating interaction region and wind stream from the positive polarity coronal hole later today or on 21 February. This may result in active conditions, with a small chance on an isolated minor storming episode.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Feb 2019

Wolf number Catania	012
10cm solar flux	070
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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