Просмотр архива за четверг, 9 мая 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2019 May 09 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 May 2019	075	015
10 May 2019	075	028
11 May 2019	075	047

Bulletin

The main event of the period was a C6.7 flare peaking at 5:51UT from Catania group 16 (NOAA AR 2740). The group is overall in decay while the other region on disk, Catania group 17 (NOAA AR 2741) appears inactive. X-ray flux is expected to be below C level although a chance for an isolated C flare remains.

From EUV imagery there appears to be a material eruption associated to the C6.7 flare but coronagraph data currently do not allow to estimate a possible CME extent and corresponding implications to Earth. No new Earth directed CMEs have so far been detected in coronagraph images.

Solar proton flux levels were at background values and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind seems to finally show the expected increase from around 5:00UT. Solar wind speed has risen since then from just around 300km/s to 370 km/s and total magnetic field reached 8nT. These are still mild effects while Solar wind speed is expected to further increase a bit more. From tomorrow afternoon May 10 onwards we may see the arrival of the May 6 CME causing further disturbances.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 0-3). Further unsettled to active conditions are expected, with associated to the CME arrival, from tomorrow afternoon onwards, a possibility for minor to possibly moderate geomagnetic storming episodes.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 027, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 08 May 2019

Wolf number Catania	027
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	002
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	025 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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