Просмотр архива за суббота, 26 октября 2019

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2019 Oct 26 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Oct 2019	067	023
27 Oct 2019	067	013
28 Oct 2019	067	007

Bulletin

Solar X ray flux remained below B level throughout the period. There are no active regions on disk and X-ray flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Form around 9:24UT yesterday October 25 onwards a faint slow CME front is visible along the southern Solar limb in SoHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph images. It is not believed to be related to the filament eruption reported yesterday and its origin remains unclear. In STEREO A COR2 data a corresponding CME is visible from around 6:54 UT onward, directed straight West as seen from STEREO location. Combining these data it seems likely that the CME is Earthbound with an expected arrival time around midnight October 29/30. No other Earth-directed CME's were detected in coronagraph images.

Solar high energy proton fluxes were at background levels and are expected to remain so.

Solar wind speed increased at the start of the period to around 670 km/s before starting a slow gradual decline to current values of 600 km/s. Total magnetic field was mostly in the 4-6nT range but recently increased to around 10nT. Bz was variable over the period but tended to be negative this morning with values down to -6nT and -8.5nT more recently. The phi angle was firmly in the positive sector. Solar wind is expected to slowly decline over the next 24-48 hours as the high speed stream subsides.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to active (NOAA Kp 3-4, local K Dourbes 2-4) with just recently a minor storming episode (NOAA Kp 5 for the 9-12UT period). Active geomagnetic conditions are likely over the next 24-48 hours before returning to unsettled conditions. Initially, isolated periods of minor geomagnetic storms are still possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Oct 2019

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	069
AK Chambon La Forêt	031
AK Wingst	021
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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