Просмотр архива за четверг, 3 декабря 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2020 Dec 03 1241 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Dec 2020	105	007
04 Dec 2020	102	032
05 Dec 2020	098	011

Bulletin

Solar activity was low with the largest flare of the period a C1.7 flare peaking at 1:56UT from NOAA AR 2786. There are 3 regions on disk. The largest is NOAA AR 2786, which although large now has a simple alpha configuration. Region NOAA AR 2790 is of beta configuration but was inactive. Further C flares are probable with only a small chance of an isolated M flare.

There were no new observations of Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections.

The greater than 10MeV proton flux remained enhanced (max 5 pfu), with a general decaying trend. The greater than 2MeV electron flux did briefly exceed the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the diurnal maximum. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours. An increase in levels is still possible over the next days following the recent Solar wind enhancements, and with the possible CME glancing blow.

Solar wind conditions became nominal with Solar wind speed further decreasing to 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was around a nominal 5nT with a variable and unremarkable North-South orientation. The phi angle was mostly in the negative sector (towards the Sun). There were no signs of possible perturbations associated to the November 29 CME and this is now not expected anymore. Essentially nominal Solar wind conditions are expected with a slight chance for perturbations from the morning of December 4 onwards associated to the December 1 CME.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet (local K Dourbes 0-2 and NOAA Kp 0-1). Geomagnetic conditions could possibly become active or show minor geomagnetic storm conditions should a glancing blow from the December 1 CME occur.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 039, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	050
10cm solar flux	105
AK Chambon La Forêt	004
AK Wingst	003
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	043 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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