Просмотр архива за понедельник, 14 декабря 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2020 Dec 14 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
14 Dec 2020	081	004
15 Dec 2020	081	006
16 Dec 2020	082	005

Bulletin

Alpha region NOAA 2792 has produced a few low B flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 15%.

LASCO C2 observed a CME towards the East on 09:24 UT on December 13, probably related to the B1.5 flare in AR 2792 at 8:50 UT. Due to its orientation, we do not expect this CME to be Earthbound.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 330 and 375 km/s. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was oriented towards the Sun and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 6 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT. Nominal solar wind conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 0 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 14, 15 and 16.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 13 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	081
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	011 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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