Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 20 декабря 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2020 Dec 20 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
20 Dec 2020	083	005
21 Dec 2020	083	004
22 Dec 2020	083	013

Bulletin

The Sun is spotless and has produced no B flares or brighter in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at only 5%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels during the past 24 hours, and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR has increased from about 330 to about 415 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values around 375 km/s. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) was predominantly positive (away from the Sun) and its magnitude varied between about 1 and 8 nT. Bz was never below -5 nT for an extended period. Nominal to slightly enhanced solar wind conditions are expected on December 20 and 21. On December 22, solar wind conditions may be enhanced due to the expected encounter of the Earth with a solar wind stream from an extension of the (positive polarity) north polar crown coronal hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 20 and 21, with a slight chance for active intervals (K Dourbes = 4). Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are possible on December 22 due to the expected solar wind stream from an extension of the (positive polarity) north polar crown coronal hole, with a slight chance for minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5).

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 19 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	082
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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