Просмотр архива за четверг, 24 декабря 2020

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2020 Dec 24 1258 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Dec 2020	086	009
25 Dec 2020	085	007
26 Dec 2020	086	004

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at very low levels. No significant flares have been recorded. AR 2796 (Hsx/alpha) has maintained same configuration. The new region in the SE quadrant, reported yesterday, has been named AR2795 (Cso/Beta). Solar activity is expected to remain mainly at low levels, with a low chance of C class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections were observed in the available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased in the past 24 hours, without crossing the threshold of 1000 pfu, due to the positive northern Coronal Hole (CH) originated High Speed Streams (HSS). It is expected to further increase further in the next 24 hours, under the remaining influence of the HSSs. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence increased in the past 24 hours, almost reaching moderate levels. It is expected to be further influenced by the HSSs and increase in the next 24 hours as well.

Solar wind speed near Earth as registered by DSCOVR and ACE varied between 510 and 625 km/s in the past 24 hours. The orientation of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field was predominantly to the positive sector (away from the Sun). Its magnitude varied between about 0 and 5 nT while Bz varied between -5 and 3 nT. A negative polarity CH has been registered on the SE quadrant. It is expected to cross central meridian on Dec 26. Solar wind conditions are anticipated to remain elevated due to remaining effects of the HSSs associated with the positive northern CH extensions.

Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were registered in the past 24 hours, with values for K Dourbes and NOAA Kp varying between 1-3. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions, with a small chance for active conditions (K Dourbes = 4), are possible due to any remaining effects of the HSSs originating from the extensions of the positive northern polar coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 024, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Dec 2020

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	086
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	013
Estimated international sunspot number	022 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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