Просмотр архива за пятница, 8 января 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2021 Jan 08 1230 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Jan 2021	074	007
09 Jan 2021	074	010
10 Jan 2021	074	017

Bulletin

Solar X-ray flux remained below background (B) level. With no active regions on disc, solar flaring activity is expected to be very low.

Around 2UT a filament eruption can be observed in SSO AIA 304 and 193 images from the Solar South-Western quadrant. In LASCO C2 coronagraph images a corresponding CME towards the West with angular width around 90 degrees is visible from 5:12UT onwards, which also can be observed in Stereo A COR2 data. It has a low speed of maximum 300 km/s and from an analysis of its direction is expected to just miss Earth. There are no other new Earth directed CMEs observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu event threshold and is expected to remain below that threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and expected to be normal to moderate over the next days.

A positive polarity coronal hole crossed central meridian on the 6th of January and may influence Solar wind condition around Earth by January 10.

Solar wind reflected a further recovery to background slow Solar wind conditions. Solar wind speed decreased from around 450 km/s to under 400 km/s currently. The magnetic field phi angle was somewhat variable over the period. Background slow Solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours. On January 10 an increase in Solar wind conditions due to the high speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole must be expected.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled with an isolated active period reported locally (NOAA Kp 0-3 and local K Dourbes 0-4). Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected over the next 24, with unsettled conditions becoming likely on January 10 and an isolated active period can not be excluded.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 000, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Jan 2021

Wolf number Catania	000
10cm solar flux	075
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	///
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	000 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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