Просмотр архива за вторник, 15 июня 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2021 Jun 15 1238 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Jun 2021	076	025
16 Jun 2021	075	029
17 Jun 2021	075	008

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels with no significant flares detected in the last 24 hours. The only active region on the visible solar disc NOAA AR2833 (Catania sunspot group 7) remained inactive with a simple unipolar magnetic field configuration. The X-ray flare activity is expected to remain at very low levels for the next 24 hours with a tiny chance for a C-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux remained under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain predominantly at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. Intermittent transitions to moderate levels are possible depending on the observed solar wind speed.

The solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) indicate the arrival of the high speed stream (HSS) related to the patchy high-latitude extension of the southern negative polarity polar coronal hole. Over the past 24 hours the interplanetary magnetic field changed orientation from the positive to the negative sector. The solar wind speed moderately varied in the range of 317km/s to 402 km/s and is currently quickly increasing. The total magnetic field experienced stronger fluctuations reaching a maximum strength of 12 nT. The Bz component registered a minimum of -8 nT.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for isolated minor geomagnetic storms due to the aforementioned HSS.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 011, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Jun 2021

Wolf number Catania	011
10cm solar flux	077
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	011 - Based on 36 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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