Просмотр архива за среда, 15 сентября 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2021 Sep 15 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
15 Sep 2021	078	003
16 Sep 2021	077	001
17 Sep 2021	076	001

Bulletin

The solar activity was at very low levels with no C-class flare activity over the past 24 hours. NOAA Active Region (AR) 2866 (Catania group 40) and Catania group 39 are currently rotating out of Earth's view and their magnetic topology cannot be estimated with enough accuracy. As they are both expected to disappear from Earth's view in the next 24 hours, the chances of a detectable C-class flare are small.

No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours. There was a number of CMEs detected during the last 24 hours but almost all are either back-sided or too far to the east of the solar disk, as viewed from Earth. There was a single CME that was located in the west of the solar disk (as viewed from Earth) but it is judged too small and too slow to be geo-effective.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h fluence for the greater than 2MeV electron flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

The Solar Wind (SW) parameters measured by ACE and DSCOVR show a gradual return to a slow wind regime. The SW speed gradually dropped from 480 and 380 km/s in the past 24 hours. The total magnetic field remain at around 5 nT with only very short drops to values as low as 2.9 nT. The Bz magnetic field component varied between -4.3 and 4.2 nT but was mostly negative during the last 24 hours. The interplanetary magnetic field remain positive (directed away from the Sun) throughout the last 24 hours. The solar wind parameters are expected to reflect a slow SW regime in the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were globally quiet (NOAA Kp index 1-2) and locally quiet to unsettled (K Dourbes 1-3). They are expected to become quiet both globally and locally in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 010, based on 11 stations.

Solar indices for 14 Sep 2021

Wolf number Catania	028
10cm solar flux	078
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	022 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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