Просмотр архива за вторник, 7 декабря 2021

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2021 Dec 07 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Dec 2021	080	003
08 Dec 2021	080	005
09 Dec 2021	080	004

Bulletin

Solar activity was at very low levels with the X-ray flux mostly below B-class flare over the last 24 hours. Catania Sunspot 80 (NOAA Active Region 2902) produced two B-flare and is currently decaying, and NOAA Active Region 2904 remained stable and did not show any flaring activity. Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels, with a very slight chance for a C-class flare.

Multiple backside Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) with a relatively low speed (less than 600 km/s) were observed, and were associated with backside flaring activity. A very faint CME was also observed on December 5 around 10:00 UTC. This CME is associated with a filament and a dimming located near latitude -14 degrees and longitude -1 degree. As for on December 5 around 14:00 UTC, this CME is too fainted is not exacted to show any disturbance into the solar wind parameters recorded near Earth.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold in the past 24 hours but is expected to remain just below or at this threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was moderate levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to be at between nominal and moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed (DSCOVR) remained elevated due to the influence of the high-speed streams from the positive polarity Coronal Hole (CH) that began to traverse the central meridian on Dec 02. The solar wind speed was ranging between 456 km/s and 530 km/s over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field was below 7 nT, and its southward component, Bz, fluctuated between -6 nT and +5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind is then expected to gradually return to a slow solar wind regime later on Dec 07 and 08. The high-speed streams from the small equatorial CH (negative polarity) that traverse the central meridian on Dec 05 may enhance the solar wind parameters near Earth around December 10-11.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettle over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp and K-BEL recorded values of 1-3 and 1-2, respectively). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled periods in response to the elevated solar wind speed.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 012, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Dec 2021

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	080
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	014 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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