Просмотр архива за среда, 19 января 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Jan 19 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Jan 2022	115	025
20 Jan 2022	114	024
21 Jan 2022	113	022

Bulletin

There are 4 visible active regions on the solar disk. NOAA AR 2929 produced an M1.5 flare peaking at 17:44 UT on 18 January. This region has decayed into a beta magnetic field configuration, region 2930 can also produce flaring activity. C-class flares can be expected in the next 24 hours, more M-class flares are possible. In the case of large flares, since these active regions are located close to the west limb, a proton event is possible at the Earth,

The flare described above was related to a CME of about 90 degrees width, directed to the northwest with a speed of 900 km/s. A possible glancing blow at the Earth can be expected on 21 January.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours (with a warning condition due to possible M flares close to the west limb). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux increased slightly above the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain close to the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Elevated high solar wind speeds close to 700 km/s with Bz reaching -9 nT were observed overnight. The increases initiated during a data gap in DSCOVR/ACE data around 23:00 UT On 18 January, there might be a shock in that gap. These disturbances most likely mark the arrival of the CMEs from 15-16 January, until now consisting only of a glancing blow. The solar wind speed at Earth now is about 620 km/s, and the interplanetary magnetic field around 4 nT. The solar wind is expected to remain disturbed for the next 24 hours.

Due to the disturbances mentioned above, geomagnetic conditions reached minor storm levels in Belgium (K_Bel = 5) in the past 24 hours, and moderate storm conditions were reached at planetary levels (Kp = 6). Unsettled to active periods mostly expected for the next 24 hours, with up to moderate storm conditions possible.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 059, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Jan 2022

Wolf number Catania	082
10cm solar flux	115
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	019
Estimated international sunspot number	064 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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