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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Feb 02 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Feb 2022	129	013
03 Feb 2022	131	012
04 Feb 2022	130	013

Bulletin

Solar activity was low over the past 24 hours. Active Region 2939 (Catania sunspot group 22, Mag. configuration: beta) has been most active, producing a C9.0 flare, peaking on Feb 01 22:23UT. This was associated with a dimming. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected with a possibility of M-class flares and a slight chance of X-class flares.

Of the Coronal Mass Ejections observed, none is currently expected to have an Earth-directed component.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours, depending flaring activity. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold on Feb 01 13:38UT, until 22:34UT. It is expected to remain about threshold in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be about moderate levels during the next period. Over the past 24 hours, a shock was detected in solar wind data on Feb 01 21:41UT, due to the arrival of the CME taking place on Jan 29 23:36UT. The solar wind speed jumped from 400 to 470 km/s. The magnetic field magnitude jumped from 5 to 12 nT. Bz attained a southward peak reaching -11nT. Since then, the total magnetic field has decreased to 8 nT while Bz has a value of +3nT. The solar wind speed has remained slightly enhanced. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector sector (directed way from the Sun), with slight variations associated with the impact of the CME. Over the next 24 hours, we expect that impact to dissipate further. An equatorial negative polarity coronal hole is at central meridian and the associated high speed stream can be expected Feb 05.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours, with an active period on Feb 02 00:00 to 03:00UT (NOAA Kp and K-BEL=4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled over the next 24 hours due to the expected CME influence.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 077, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	083 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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