Просмотр архива за четверг, 17 февраля 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Feb 17 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Feb 2022	100	001
18 Feb 2022	099	003
19 Feb 2022	098	007

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels. Most of the C-class flares that were recorded were associated with Catania group 26 (NOAA region 2941), which was already beyond the west solar limb. Of the remaining regions, Catania group 37 (NOAA region 2948) is the most complex. The remaining regions are all small and relatively simple regions. Catania group 32 (NOAA region 2943), Catania group 33 (NOAA region 2946), Catania group 39 (NOAA region 2949) and Catania group 40 (NOAA region 2951) have all showed signs of decay. Catania group 38 (NOAA region 2950) remained stable. Solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a remaining chance for C-class flares.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been observed in the available coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced over the past 24 hours, possibly related to the far side CME of Feb 15, but remained far below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu alert threshold. The electron flux is expected to gradually decrease over the next days but it is expected that the threshold will be exceeded again today. The 24 hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate to nominal levels during the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 320 and 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 1 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was predominantly in the negative sector (directed towards from the Sun), switching to the positive sector between 02 and 11 UT. The solar wind conditions are expected to continue to reflect a slow solar wind regime for the next 48 hours.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Belgium 1-3). Quiet conditions with isolated unsettled intervals are expected over the next 48 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 089, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	119
10cm solar flux	103
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	091 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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