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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Feb 25 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
25 Feb 2022	093	009
26 Feb 2022	095	015
27 Feb 2022	097	015

Bulletin

The Sun produced no C flares in the past 24 hours. The chance for a C flare in the next 24 hours is estimated at 40%.

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed in available coronagraphic imagery.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and is expected to stay at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in the past 24 hours, and may exceed that threshold again in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours, and may reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind speed as registered by DSCOVR varied between about 380 and 490 km/s in the past 24 hours, with current values near 445 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field near Earth (IMF) varied between about 0 and 8 nT, and its orientation was predominantly away from the Sun. There were no extended time intervals with Bz below -5 nT. A further decrease of solar wind conditions is expected on February 25. On February 26 and 27, enhanced solar wind levels are possible due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Quiet geomagnetic conditions (K-BEL between 1 and 2; NOAA Kp between 0 and 3) were registered in the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic levels (K-BEL < 4) are expected on February 25, with a chance for active intervals (K-BEL = 4). Active intervals are possible on February 26 and 27, with a slight chance for minor storm intervals (K-BEL = 5), due to the expected arrival of a high speed stream from a positive polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 022, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 24 Feb 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	092
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	036 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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