Просмотр архива за четверг, 17 марта 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Mar 17 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Mar 2022	107	007
18 Mar 2022	105	007
19 Mar 2022	103	007

Bulletin

There are two active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 2965 (beta-gamma magnetic field configuration) has decreased in size and produced only one C-class flare (C1.2 with peak at 01:54 UT). The other active region visible, NOAA AR 2967, is small and has a simple alpha magnetic field configuration. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares can be expected (M-class flares remain possible, but less likely).

A filament erupted from NOAA AR 2967, creating a CME first seen by SOHO/LASCO-C2 at 13:25 UT on March 16, with an angular width of about 100 degrees and projected speed of 360 km/s (the CME is too faint on STEREO/COR2 beacon images in order to allow a 3D reconstruction). The bulk of the CME is traveling to the east, but given the proximity of the source to the central meridian, an arrival to the Earth is possible on 20 March.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so in next 24 hours.

The Earth is inside a slow solar wind flow, with solar wind speeds close to 370 km/s and an interplanetary magnetic field magnitude around 5 nT. Similar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet (K_Bel = 1-2 and Kp = 2) . Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 048, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	057 - Based on 13 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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