Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 27 марта 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Mar 27 1239 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
27 Mar 2022	119	018
28 Mar 2022	119	021
29 Mar 2022	119	017

Bulletin

The solar activity was slightly more active with two C2-class flares over the last 24 hours. The sunspots NOAA-AR 2974 and NOAA-AR 2975 have decreased in size and magnetic complexity, while NOAA-AR2976 beta magnetic classification remains stable. For the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible with a low chance of M-class flare.

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at nominal levels in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold and is expected to remain below the threshold in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence dropped to nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected remained at nominal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters measured in the Earth environment (by DSCOVR) became enhanced with the expected arrival of the fast solar wind streams from the large equatorial coronal hole that faced Earth on March 24 (positive magnetic polarity). The solar wind speed increased from slow speed range to 553 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field reached 14 nT, and its southward Bz-component fluctuated between -11.3 nT and 13.4 nT. The solar wind conditions is expected to remain enhanced for an other couple of days. Also some additional perturbations may be observed tomorrow, on March 18, due to the arrival of the western flank component of this interplanetary coronal mass ejection associated with M1.5-class flare on March 25 at 05:25 UTC.

The geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA-Kp recorded values of 1-3) with some active conditions observed at local stations in Belgium (K-BEL recorded values of 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly unsettled with possible periods of active to minor storm conditions due to the arrival of the fast solar wind associated to the large equatorial coronal hole that faced Earth on March 24, and combine with the possible arrival of the interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection on March 28.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 080, based on 21 stations.

Solar indices for 26 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	008
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	055 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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