Просмотр архива за среда, 30 марта 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Mar 30 1253 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

Солнечные протоны

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
30 Mar 2022	149	013
31 Mar 2022	148	041
01 Apr 2022	152	022

Bulletin

Seven regions are present on the visible solar disc, with Active Regions (AR) NOAA 2975, 2976 and 2978 the most magnetically complex. The flare with highest output has been the M1.6-class flare, peak time March 29th 21:43UT, from AR 2975. Over the next 24 hours, C-class flares are possible with a chance of M-class flares and a possibility of X-class flares.

A full halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected by CACTus with reported start time March 30th 06:36UT. Stereo A Cor2 images suggest that the bulk of the material is directed eastwards. An associated coronal wave has been observed. More will be reported.

The proton flux has been gradually decreasing over the past 24 hours. It is expected to continue this trend, possibly with an increase during the arrival of the expected CMEs, about early March 31st. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain as such over the next 24 hours, until the CME arrival when a drop in the flux values can be expected. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluence was at nominal levels the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain at those levels over the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours, the total magnetic field values fluctuated between 1 and 5 nT. Its southward component Bz had values between -5 and +4 nT. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 375 and 435 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle has mainly been in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). A negative polarity southern Coronal Hole (CH) is present at central meridian. An equatorial negative polarity CH will be at central meridian tomorrow. The effects of the associated high speed streams can be expected 3-4/4. Over the next 24 hours we expect enhancement of the solar wind conditions, as a response to the arrival of the two CMEs from Match 28th.

Over the past 24 hours, quiet geomagnetic conditions have been recorded, being unsettled locally for an isolated period (K_BEL = 3) between March 29th 21:00UT to Match 30th 01:00UT. Over the next 24 hours, active conditions can be expected, with a possibility of minor and a change of moderate storm conditions.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 102, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 29 Mar 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	011
Estimated international sunspot number	129 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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