Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 10 апреля 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Apr 10 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

Quiet conditions (<50% probability of C-class flares)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Apr 2022	104	026
11 Apr 2022	101	018
12 Apr 2022	098	005

Bulletin

Solar activity was at low levels with two impulsive C-class flares registered over the past 24 hours from behind the south-west limb. C1.1-class flare with peak time 19 UT on Aril 9th was produced by active region NOAA 2978 and a C4.9-class flare with peak time at 02:41 UT on April 10th originated from NOAA 2981 (beta). The two remaining active regions on the visible solar disc, namely NOAA 2983 (beta) and NOAA 2985 (beta), have remained stable and inactive. The X-ray flaring activity is expected to be mostly at very low levels for the next 24 hours with small probability for C-class flaring.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) was first detected in the LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery around 09:24 UT on April 9th. The CME resulted from a large filament eruption in the southwest quadrant. The bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but a minor glancing blow could reach Earth early on April 14th. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was under the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) registered the arrival of a high speed stream while remaining under the continuous mild influence of an ICME. This resulted in elevated solar wind conditions. The solar wind velocity reached 530 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field increased to 18.7 nT and the Bz component registered a minimum of -15.9 nT. The orientation of the B field switched to the negative sector, reflecting the polarity of the geo-effective coronal hole. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced over the next 24 hours under the influence of the HSS potentially mixed with another minor ICME impact later today.

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours locally were quiet to active with 3 hour interval of minor storm levels between 04 and 07 UT on April 10th. Globally major storm levels were reached for the interval 03-06 UT with a following minor storm between 06-09 UT on April 10th. Mostly unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours with chances for more minor geomagnetic storms due HSS. Moderate geomagnetic storm are possible in case of another ICME arrival, though less likely.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 018, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Apr 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	018
Estimated Ap	020
Estimated international sunspot number	036 - Based on 28 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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