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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Sep 19 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
19 Sep 2022	136	010
20 Sep 2022	138	012
21 Sep 2022	140	007

Bulletin

Several C flares occurred over the reporting period. The strongest was a C7.6 flare peaking at 2:30UTC from NOAA active region 3102 (Catania group 35). A significant part of the flaring activity should be attributed to a new region that is turning over the South-East limb onto the visible disc and which was numbered as Catania sunspot group 42. NOAA active region 3103 has decayed into plage, while some new spots (numbered NOAA active region 3104 and Catania group 41) have emerged to the West of NOAA 3103 and to the North of NOAA 3100, but it is yet unclear if these are persisting. Catania group 35 (NOAA active region 3102) remains the most complex on disc and the main probable source of flaring. Flaring is expected at C level with also a chance for M level flaring remaining.

A filament erupted from south of NOAA active region 3103 around 15:38UTC. An associated CME towards the South-West can be identified in SoHO/LASCO C2 images from 18:12UTC onwards. The angular width of the CME is below 90 degrees and the CME is not expected to influence Earth. No other Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained enhanced but below minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain enhanced, but below the radiation storm thresholds over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was well below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

An extended equatorial coronal hole of positive polarity started crossing the central meridian around midnight. We are expecting to see its associated high speed stream in in situ Solar wind conditions around noon September 22.

Solar wind conditions reflected high speed Solar wind conditions with solar wind speed reaching up to 550km/s but it has meanwhile decreased already to below 500km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude followed a decaying trend starting around 10nT and ending around 7nT. The north-south component of the magnetic field has been variable and mostly positive. A further decay towards slow Solar wind conditions is expected, with still a small chance for some perturbations from a glancing blow of the September 16 CME. Later in the week on September 22 we are expecting a renewed increase to high speed Solar wind conditions, related to the coronal hole that is currently transiting the central meridian.

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes mostly 1-3) with just an isolated active period locally. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled with a slight chance for some isolated active periods.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 068, based on 19 stations.

Solar indices for 18 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	010
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	071 - Based on 26 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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