Просмотр архива за четверг, 29 сентября 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Sep 29 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 Sep 2022	135	007
30 Sep 2022	138	023
01 Oct 2022	140	043

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at low levels. There are currently 4 numbered regions on disk. Most of the C-class flares were associated with Catania group 47 (NOAA AR 3107). Catania group 48 (NOAA AR 3110) also produced low level C-class flares. Catania group 50 (NOAA AR 3111) Catania group 42 (NOAA AR 3105) were mostly quiet. The largest flare observed was a C5.6 flare, from beyond the east limb, peaking on September 29 at 05:30 UT. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels, with C-class flares likely and a chance for M-class flares.

A faint CME to the south-east seen in LASCO C2 from 05:30 UT September 28, probably associated with the filament eruption observed from the north-east quadrant in SDO/304 at 04:48 UT September 28 could have a glancing blow at Earth on December 01. No other Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

In the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was slightly enhanced but remained well below the minor storm warning threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain below the radiation storm threshold over the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels over the past 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next 24 hours.

The solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence of the high speed stream. The solar wind speed showed a general decreasing trend, with values between 450 and 580 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude oscillated around 5 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards the Sun). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to decrease on September 29. From late on September 30 the solar wind speed and magnetic field are expected to become enhanced in response to the expected high speed stream associated with the positive polarity coronal hole, which began to cross the central meridian on September 27.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-2, local K-Dourbes 1-3). Geomagnetic condition are expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for the next 24 hours, with active to moderate storm conditions possible from midday on September 30 through to October 2, due to the aforementioned high speed stream.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 072, based on 20 stations.

Solar indices for 28 Sep 2022

Wolf number Catania	086
10cm solar flux	135
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	084 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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