Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 9 октября 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Oct 09 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
09 Oct 2022	155	019
10 Oct 2022	155	011
11 Oct 2022	155	008

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was at quiet levels with C-class flares produced by Catania sunspots group 55 (NOAA AR 3112), and Catania sunspots group 56 (NOAA AR 3116), and also by Catania sunspots group 59 (NOAA AR 3118), and Catania sunspots group 58 (NOAA AR 3119). The solar flaring activity is expected to remain quiet levels with C-class flares and possible isolated M-class flare.

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux has crossed the 1000 pfu threshold over long periods of time and is expected to be above the threshold for long periods in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate to high levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated due to the influence of the high-speed streams coming from coronal holes (positive polarity). The solar wind speed values were between 480 km/s and 590 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude ranged between 2.3 nT and 7.0 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6.1 nT and 4.5 nT being mainly negative. The magnetic field phi angle was mostly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced due to the combination of the possible arrival of glancing blow of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection from the filament eruption observed on October 05, and the effects of high-speed streams from the corona hole (positive magnetic polarity).

Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled to active (NOAA Kp 2-4, local K-Dourbes 1-4) due to the prolonged periods of the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic being negative. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at unsettled conditions with possible periods of active conditions for the next days due to the expected solar wind enhancements.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 127, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 08 Oct 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	013
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	147 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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