Просмотр архива за понедельник, 26 декабря 2022

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2022 Dec 26 1244 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Dec 2022	135	020
27 Dec 2022	135	012
28 Dec 2022	135	013

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low. Several low C class flares were recorded, mostly from NOAA active regions 3169 and 3171, but also from another new region (numbered NOAA active region 3176) which has rotated onto the disc in the northeast. NOAA active region 3169 remains the most complex on disc, with mixed polarity regions representing the most likely areas of flaring activity. NOAA active region 3175 grew slightly in the trailing section. The other regions were quiet or in decay. Flaring at C level is expected with a slight chance for M class flaring.

Associated to the C7.8 flare yesterday, a CME towards the west-southwest is visible in SoHO/LASCO coronagraph data from 7:24 UTC onwards. It is considered to be too far off the Sun-Earth line to affect Earth. Another CME is visible towards the South-East from 21:36UTC onwards, related to a filament eruption from the south-east of the disc. It is narrow and off the Sun-Earth line. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was fluctuating around the 1000 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

A positive polarity coronal hole in the Northern hemisphere is currently transiting the central meridian and may influence solar wind conditions starting late December 28.

Solar wind conditions showed initially a waning influence of the high speed stream conditions, but have increased again. Solar wind speed reached over 600km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field has gradually build up to over 10nT. We are currently experiencing a period of pronounced southward orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz around -10nT). The orientation of the magnetic field showed connection to a positive sector (field away from the Sun) until recently. Solar wind conditions are expected to remain enhanced initially, before easing down. By late December 28 a new high speed stream is expected to set in.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K Dourbes 1-3) with a local active period just now in response to the period of southward interplanetary magnetic field. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 117, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Dec 2022

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	///
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	116 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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