Просмотр архива за понедельник, 2 января 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Jan 02 1235 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
02 Jan 2023	156	008
03 Jan 2023	152	006
04 Jan 2023	153	011

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity was low. The largest flare was a C9 flare from NOAA active region 3176, peaking at 06:21 UTC. Further C-class flares were produced by NOAA active regions 3176, 3177 and 3180. NOAA active regions 3176 and 3180 remain the most complex regions on disk with a chance of producing M-class flares. A new region has rotated onto the disk over the south east limb, NOAA active region 3181, but is simple and inactive. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares and ongoing chance for M-class flares.

A partial halo CME was observed towards the east in LASCO C2 from 20:24 UTC January 01, this event is determined to be back-sided. No new Earth directed CMEs have been observed in coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected do so again in the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next days.

The solar wind speed showed a decreasing trend over the past 24 hours, with values ranging between 450 and 570 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was around 5 nT. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) with a variable north-south component (Bz ranging between -5 to 4 nT). The solar wind speed is expected to continue to slowly decrease and return to a slow solar wind regime over the next days. The solar wind associated with the negative polarity coronal hole which began to cross the central meridian on January 01 is expected to then cause an enhanced solar wind speed from January 04.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled with one period of active conditions (NOAA Kp=4). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected over the next days with isolated periods of active conditions still possible on January 02.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 104, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 01 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	020
Estimated Ap	018
Estimated international sunspot number	110 - Based on 17 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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