Просмотр архива за пятница, 6 января 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Jan 06 1237 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
06 Jan 2023	159	005
07 Jan 2023	162	005
08 Jan 2023	164	003

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity reached high levels. NOAA Active Region (AR) 3182 produced an X1.2 flare, peaking at 00:57 UTC January 06. Further C-class flares were produced by NOAA ARs 3176, 3180, 3181 and a new active region NOAA 3183. NOAA AR 3183 emerged rapidly on January 05 in the southern hemisphere near the central meridian. NOAA AR 3181 showed further emergence and trailer sunspot development. NOAA AR 3137 showed signs of decay, while NOAA AR 3136 has rotated off the solar disk. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flares, M flares likely and a chance for further X-class flares.

No Earth directed CMEs have been observed in the coronagraph data.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels in the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold. It is expected remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next days.

The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field gradually decreased from 17nT to a minimum of 6 nT at 00 UTC. The values then increased again slightly and were around 10nT for the second half of the period. The orientation of the magnetic field was predominantly in the negative sector (field directed towards from the Sun). The Bz was negative for a sustained period between 12 and 22 UTC January 05, before becoming mostly positive (Bz had a minimum of -10nT). The solar wind speed values gradually increased from 18 UTC on January 5, with maximum value of 550 km/s. The magnetic field magnitude is expected to continue to slowly. January 07-08 we expected a gradual return to slow solar wind regime.

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp and local K-Dourbes reached 3). Unsettled conditions are expected with possible isolated active conditions still be possible on January 06 and 07.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 132, based on 10 stations.

Solar indices for 05 Jan 2023

Wolf number Catania	120
10cm solar flux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	110 - Based on 18 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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