Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 11 июня 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Jun 11 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
11 Jun 2023	165	016
12 Jun 2023	163	013
13 Jun 2023	161	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with several C-class flares being detected in the last 24 hours. The largest flare was a C5.7 flare, peaking at 21:16 UTC on June 10, associated with NOAA AR 3323 (beta class). This region is currently rotating out of view over the west limb. NOAA AR 3327 (beta-gamma) is the most complex active region on the disk but produced only C-class flares. Isolated C-class flaring was also produced by NOAA AR 3331 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Выбросы корональной массы

In the past 24 hours, several coronal mass ejections (CME) and flows were observed in the available SOHO/LASCO coronagraph imagery and automatically detected by the Cactus tool over. CME was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:24 UTC on June 09, likely related to the M2.5 flare from NOAA AR 3331. The CME is directed to the south-east and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow of the shock may impact Earth in the late evening of June 13 or in the first half of June 14. During the last 24 hours there were no other potentially Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Солнечный ветер

At the beginning of the period, the solar wind parameters reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed was approximately 310 km/s; the total interplanetary magnetic field was weak, below 4 nT. The magnetic field orientation was in the negative sector (field towards the Sun). The solar wind conditions became slightly disturbed later on, with the total interplanetary magnetic field reaching the values up to 15 nT at around 03:20 UTC on June 11. The southward interplanetary magnetic component, Bz, ranged between -10 nT and 15 nT. The solar wind velocity followed an increasing trend, rising from 310 km/s to 410 km/s. The magnetic field orientation has switched to the predominantly positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) since 00:05 UTC on June 11. This is probably associated with the arrival of the expected high speed stream (HSS) from a positive polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain elevated for the next days with ongoing HSS passage a low probability for further minor enhancements from late on June 13, due to the CME on June 09, which may have a glancing blow at Earth.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA KP 1-3 and K-Bel 1-3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected at quiet to active levels during next days with a chance for isolated minor storm period due to a high-speed stream influence and a possible glancing blow ICME passage late on June 13 – early June 14.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 145, based on 18 stations.

Solar indices for 10 Jun 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	144 - Based on 24 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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