Просмотр архива за четверг, 10 августа 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Aug 10 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Aug 2023	150	007
11 Aug 2023	150	007
12 Aug 2023	150	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity has been quite over the past 24 hours with few C-class flares beside the high number of sunspots on the disc. The larger flare was a C5.5-class flare produced by NOAA AR 3398 (Catania sunspot group 16) and was peaking at 02:42 UTC on August 10. The other regions did not show significant flaring activity. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain quite over the next 24 hours with a high probability of C-class flare and a very small chance of M-class flare.

Выбросы корональной массы

A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was observed on August 09 at 16:12 UTC in SOHO/LASCO-C2. The SIDC Cactus Tool estimated an angular width of 350 degrees and median speed of 651 km/s on the coronagraph LASCO-C2 images. No source location is visible on the solar disc seen from Earth. It is believed to come from one of the very productive regions such as NOAA Active Region (AR) 3386 (Catania sunspot group 01) which is currently on the far side view. Therefore, due to the source location, no Earth-directed component of this CME is expected. No other CME with an Earth-directed component was identified in the SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronagraph images over the past 24 hours.

Солнечный ветер

The general solar wind parameters were close to the background levels over the past 24 hours indicating a slow solar wind speed conditions. The solar wind speed was below 420 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field was below 6.8 nT . The north-south component was fluctuating between -5.0 nT and 2.6 nT. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain as such for the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet with some short unsettled periods (NOAA Kp 1-3, K Belgium 1-3) over the past 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions with possible short unsettled periods are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux started to rise at 21:46 UTC on August 07 and crossed the 10 MeV warning threshold at 01:10 UTC on August 08 as measured by GOES. This proton event was following the X1.5 class flare that was observed on August 07 peaking at 20:46 UTC. Since then the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained above the 10 MeV warning threshold. It started to slowly decreased and it is expected to remain close to the threshold or just below in the next 12-24 hours before reaching the background level. New proton event cannot be excluded due to the flaring activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and is expected to remain at this level during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 114, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	109
10cm solar flux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	009
Estimated international sunspot number	105 - Based on 25 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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