Просмотр архива за четверг, 17 августа 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Aug 17 1252 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 Aug 2023	162	011
18 Aug 2023	164	010
19 Aug 2023	162	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.6 flare peaking at 02:46 UTC on August 17, this originated beyond the west limb possibly associated with NOAA AR3394, which is now on the backside. NOAA AR 3403 remains the most complex region on disk but was quiet. NOAA AR3407 was stable and produced low level C-class flares. Three new regions were numbered: NOAA ARs 3408, 3409, 3410. Two of these (NOAA ARs 3408, 3410) along with NOAA AR3406 decayed significantly. NOAA AR 3397 is about to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and a low chance for isolated M-class flares.

Выбросы корональной массы

There were no other Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) detected in the available coronagraph observations.

Солнечный ветер

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was slightly enhanced and ranged between 4 and 10 nT. Bz had a minimum value of -8nT. The solar wind speed was increased slightly from 300km/s to values near 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (field directed away from the Sun) from 15:00 UTC on August 16. Further enhancement in the solar wind parameters and could be expected on August 17 in response to the solar wind associated with the coronal holes, which began to cross the central meridian on August 12 and 13.

Geomagnetism

During last 24 hours the geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA KP 1-3) with local active intervals (K-Bel 1-4). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet levels, with active periods possible on August 17 due to the solar wind associated to the coronal holes.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24 hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected to be at nominal levels for the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 156, based on 12 stations.

Solar indices for 16 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	160
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	012
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	149 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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