Просмотр архива за четверг, 31 августа 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Aug 31 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
31 Aug 2023	142	010
01 Sep 2023	140	015
02 Sep 2023	140	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at low levels, with few C-class flares recorded in the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an C3.0 flare, peaking at 23:28 on Aug 30, associated with the NOAA AR 3413 (beta class). Low flaring activity was also produced by NOAA AR 3415 (beta class). Other regions on the disc have simple configuration of their photospheric magnetic field (alpha and beta) and did not show any significant flaring activity. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with C-class flares likely and M-class flares possible.

Выбросы корональной массы

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 at around 17:48 UTC on Aug 29. The CME is believed to originate from a region of coronal dimming located near N05W35. The CME is directed to the north-west and the bulk of the CME is not expected to be Earth directed. However, a glancing blow at Earth may be possible. A partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in the LASCO/C2 chronograph imagery at 22:12 UTC on Aug 30. The CME is associated to a filament eruption near the disk center and a GOES C1.4 flare, peak time 21:26 UTC on Aug 30. Based on the source location and SDO/AIA 304 images the eruption is likely to have an Earth-directed component and impact on Earth. Full analysis is ongoing and more details will be provided later. There were no other Earth-directed CMEs detected in the available coronagraph observations in the last 24 hours.

Солнечный ветер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters reflected slow solar wind conditions. The solar wind speed ranged between 290 - 340 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was below 6 nT. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -5 nT and 6 nT. Today, since about 08:00 UTC on Aug 30, the total interplanetary magnetic field rose to 11 nT. This might be associated with arrival of the compression region in front of the expected HSS from a positive polarity coronal hole or with an ICME, more information will be given as more data becomes available. The solar wind parameters are expected to be slightly elevated during the next days due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a positive polarity coronal hole, that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels, with possible isolated active periods in response to the expected high- speed stream arrival associated with the coronal hole (positive polarity) that transited the central meridian on Aug 29.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold for the next days.The 24h electron fluence was at normal level. The electron fluence is expected to be at normal levels in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 091, based on 23 stations.

Solar indices for 30 Aug 2023

Wolf number Catania	107
10cm solar flux	139
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	107 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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