Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 3 декабря 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Dec 03 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 Dec 2023	145	010
04 Dec 2023	135	018
05 Dec 2023	130	011

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low during the past 24 hours with the brightest flare being a C4 from NOAA Active Region (AR) 3499 (Catania sunspot group 53) today at 08:06 UTC. However, most of the activity was produced by NOAA AR 3492 (Catania sunspot group 58) and NOAA AR 3500 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma, Catania sunspot group 65). As NOAA AR 3492 and 3499 have now turned away from Earth's view only low flaring activity is expected in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, an isolated M-class flare is still possible.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. Two partial halo CME can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images today. The first one was launched at 00:12 UTC and the second at 03:36 UTC. Both are estimated to be back-sided events and as such they are not expected to be geo-effective.

Солнечный ветер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions were typical of the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed gradually dropped from 490 to 390 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) decreased from 13 to 4 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) dropped from 12 nT 24 hours ago, to a variation between -5 and 4 nT now. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun in the past 24 hours. A Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) is likely to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause a significant disturbance.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1 to 3), while locally they were quiet (K BEL 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. They are expected to increase again to active conditions in the next 24 hours as a result of the expected arrival of another Coronal Mass Ejection (CME).

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain below this threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 105, based on 05 stations.

Solar indices for 02 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	148
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	102 - Based on 16 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Все время в UTC

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