Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 10 декабря 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Dec 10 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Dec 2023	126	007
11 Dec 2023	126	007
12 Dec 2023	126	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over past 24 hours with two M-class flares and several C-class flares. The two M1.0 and M2.3 class flares were produced by the complex region, NOAA 3511, with a beta-gamma magnetic class. The flares peak time were at 13:19 UTC on December 09, and at 03:53 UTC on December 10 respectively. This region also produced several C-class flares. The other region, NOAA 3510 and NOAA 3513 also produced several C-class flares. C-class flares are expected in the next 24 hours with some chances of M-class flare from the two beta-gamma magnetic class regions: NOAA 3511 and NOAA 3513.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth directed coronal mass ejection was identified in the currently available SOHO/LASCO-C2 coronographe images.

Корональные отверстия

The mid-latitude south coronal hole with a positive magnetic polarity has crossed the central median. A new equatorial coronal holes with positive magnetic polarity is on the East side of the solar disc facing Earth.

Солнечный ветер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions near Earth continue to show a slow solar wind regime. The SW speed ranged between 370 km/s and 460 km/s, the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) was below 5.0 nT. The North- South magnetic component (Bz) ranged between -4.2 nT and 3.5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was negative (directed towards the Sun) during the past 24 hours. The mid-latitude south coronal hole with a positive magnetic polarity that has crossed the central median on December 07 may slightly affect the SW conditions in the next days. Globally we do expect that the SW conditions remain mostly in a slow solar wind regime in the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally (NOAA-Kp and K-BEL 1 to 2) during the last 24 hours. We expect mainly quiet conditions in the next 24 hours in response to the slow solar wind conditions.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was ranging around the 1000 pfu alert threshold during the last 24 hours due to the past fast solar wind conditions. It is expected to remain close to 1000 pfu during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at moderate levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 128, based on 08 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	001
Estimated Ap	002
Estimated international sunspot number	141 - Based on 07 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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