Просмотр архива за воскресенье, 24 декабря 2023

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2023 Dec 24 1258 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Dec 2023	173	013
25 Dec 2023	172	016
26 Dec 2023	172	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was at moderate level during the last 24 hours, with several C-class flares and a M-class flare. The strongest flare was GOES M2.9 flare from NOAA AR 3529 which peaked at 11:18 UTC on Dec 24. During the flare, the source region (AR 3529) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with few C-class flares, possibly M-class flares and a low chance for isolated X-class flares.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours.

Солнечный ветер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were slightly disturbed with a strong fluctuations of North-South component (Bz). Bz component ranged between -7 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged from from 1 nT to 9 nT. The solar wind speed increased from 330 km/s to 440 km/s. The fast solar wind originating from the negative polarity coronal hole (CH), possibly connected to the southern polar CH spanning from 30 - 55 S, which reached the central meridian in the morning of Dec 18 may impact the Earth in the coming hours.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) due to the slight disturbances in the solar wind conditions. Unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are possible in the coming hours due to the expected arrival of the fast solar wind originating from the negative polarity coronal hole (CH) which crossed the central meridian on Dec 20.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 116, based on 06 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Dec 2023

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	146 - Based on 11 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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