Просмотр архива за пятница, 5 января 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 Jan 05 1240 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
05 Jan 2024	130	008
06 Jan 2024	132	011
07 Jan 2024	134	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at low levels. The largest flare was a C3.7-flare, with peak time 08:09 UTC on January 05, associated with NOAA AR 3534 (beta). There are currently 4 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3536 (beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region on disk but produced only C-class flares in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3534 (beta) and NOAA AR 3537 (beta) and NOAA AR 3538 (beta-gamma) have grown in size and produced some C-flares. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at low levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares possible and a low chance for an isolated X-class flare.

Выбросы корональной массы

Two Coronal Mass Ejection (CME), were detected in LASCO C2 data one at 13:36 UTC on January 04 and the second at 02:00 UTC on January 05 both were associated with a NOAA AR 3536. The second CME was also associated with an eruption, observed at 00:38 on January 05, in SDO/AIA 304 and 193. Further analysis of these CMEs is ongoing.

Корональные отверстия

A positive polarity coronal hole is continuing to pass the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole is expected to impact the Earth late on January 06 or on January 07.

Солнечный ветер

In the last 24 hours, the Earth continued to be under the waning influence of a high-speed stream associated with a negative polarity coronal hole and an ICME. The solar wind speed as measured by ACE, decreased from around 440 km/s to around 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 3 nT and 4 nT, with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -4 nT. The phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun) with periods in the positive sector. In the next 24 hours, slow solar wind conditions are expected.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached unsettled conditions globally and locally (Kp 3 and K Bel 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was above the 10 pfu threshold and decreased below this threshold at 01:40 UTC on January 05. The proton flux is expected to continue to decrease in the coming days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 122, based on 09 stations.

Solar indices for 04 Jan 2024

Wolf number Catania	132
10cm solar flux	126
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	006
Estimated international sunspot number	107 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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