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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 Feb 26 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
26 Feb 2024	183	015
27 Feb 2024	185	012
28 Feb 2024	187	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity over the past 24 hours was at moderate levels. The largest flare was an M2.1-flare with peak time 17:22 UTC on February 25 associated with NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma- delta). Additional C-class flares were also observed in association with NOAA AR 3590. There are currently 6 numbered active regions on the visible disk. NOAA AR 3590 (beta-gamma-delta) is the largest, most magnetically complex region, and has produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. NOAA AR 3586 (alfa) is rotating over the west limb. A new active region has emerged on the north-east quadrant of the visible solar disk (numbered NOAA AR 3595, beta). A new and yet unnumbered active region is rotating from the east limb to the north-east quadrant of the visible solar disk. All other regions were inactive and stable. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at moderate levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares probable, and X-class flares possible.

Выбросы корональной массы

A coronal dimming starting around 16:50 UTC on February 25 (visible in SDO/AIA 211 images) was observed in association with the M2.1 flare from NOAA AR 3590, implying the possibility of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME). Flare ribbons were also visible in SDO/AIA 304 images. No coronagraph images are currently available to confirm the CME occurrence. However, due to the favourable location of the source region, further investigation will be carried out to determine if and when any associated interplanetary CME (ICME) may be expected to arrive at Earth.

Корональные отверстия

Two small negative polarity coronal holes crossed the central meridian in the past 24 hours. One was a high-latitude coronal hole in the northern hemisphere. The other one was a mid-latitude coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Any high speed solar wind stream associated with this southern coronal hole may reach Earth no earlier than February 29. Additionally, a large elongated coronal hole of negative polarity, which finished crossing the central meridian on February 24, is present in the south-west quadrant of the solar disk.

Солнечный ветер

In the last 24 hours, the Earth was still under the influence of a high speed stream associated with the large negative polarity coronal hole which crossed the central meridian on February 23, which became further perturbed because of the arrival of an interplanetary coronal mass ejection (ICME) from February 21. The solar wind speed fluctuated between 341 km/s and 431 km/s, while the total interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between 1 nT and 13 nT. The Bz (north-south) component reached a minimum value of -9 nT. Over the entire period, the phi-angle was mainly in the negative sector (directed towards the Sun), with only a short period in the positive sector around 12:30 UTC on February 25. In the next 24 hours, the solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed under the influence of the combined high speed stream-ICME structure.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally reached unsettled conditions (Kp 3 and K Bel 3) due to the passage of a high speed stream and interplanetary coronal mass ejection. Unsettled to active conditions are expected in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next days. Some enhancements are possible in the case of an eruptive activity from NOAA AR 3590.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 135, based on 04 stations.

Solar indices for 25 Feb 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	181
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	012
Estimated international sunspot number	114 - Based on 15 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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