Просмотр архива за пятница, 8 марта 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 Mar 08 1301 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
08 Mar 2024	138	012
09 Mar 2024	138	035
10 Mar 2024	137	008

Solar Active Regions and flaring

The solar flaring activity was low during the last 24 hours with several C-class flares, most of them produced by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3599. The strongest reported flare was GOES C6.3 flare which peaked at 12:07 UTC on Mar 07. During the flare, the source region (AR 3599) of the flare had beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours with several C-class flares, and a chance for M-class flares.

Выбросы корональной массы

A faint and patchy coronal mass ejections (CME) was first observed on NW limb in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images at 14:00 UTC on Mar 07. It was associated with multiple C-class flares from the NOAA AR 3599 and the EUV wave. This slow and weak CME originates from the centre of the disk, possibly with its Earth-directed compenents may impact the Earth on Mar 13. No other Earth directed component of Coronal mass ejection (CME) has been identified in the available coronograph imagery.

Солнечный ветер

Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters were disturbed under the influence of high speed streams (HSSs) from the negative polarity coronal hole which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 05. The solar wind speed ranged between 350 km/s to 550 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -7 and 9 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field ranging from 1 nT to 10 nT. Solar wind parameters may continue to enhance if the shock driven by coronal mass ejection (CME), observed at 21:24 UTC on Mar 5, arrives at Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally at quiet to unsettled conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) and at locally quiet to active conditions (K BEL 1 to 3), due to the arrival of the high speed streams originating from small equatorial (negative polarity) coronal hole, which started to cross the central meridian on Mar 05. In the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions are expected if the shock driven by coronal mass ejection (CME), observed at 21:24 UTC on Mar 5, arrives at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. It is expected that this parameter to remain below the threshold level in the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 095, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 07 Mar 2024

Wolf number Catania	108
10cm solar flux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	025
AK Wingst	017
Estimated Ap	016
Estimated international sunspot number	099 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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