Просмотр архива за среда, 24 апреля 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 Apr 24 1305 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
24 Apr 2024	220	003
25 Apr 2024	220	008
26 Apr 2024	220	015

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity remained at moderate levels in the past 24 hours with multiple M-class flares. There are 15 numbered and several unnumbered active regions on the visible solar disc. NOAA AR 3645 (beta-gamma) remains the largest region, followed by NOAA AR 3646 (beta-gamma), NOAA AR 3647 (beta-gamma) and NOAA AR 3639 (beta-gamma). The strongest activity was M2.9 flare, start time 17:33 UTC, end time 17:52 UTC, peak time 17:44 UTC on April 23rd produced by NOAA AR 3638 (beta). Other regions which contributed to the low M-class flaring observed are NOAA AR 3645 and NOAA AR 3647. NOAA AR 3546 and NOAA AR 3654 (beta) contributed to the high C-class flaring. The solar flaring activity is expected to remain at moderate levels over the next days with likely further M-class flaring and 20% chance for isolated X-class flaring.

Выбросы корональной массы

Further analysis of the multiple coronal mass ejections (CMEs) detected by LASCO/C2 during the UTC night of April 23rd suggests no expected impact on Earth. A slow partial halo CME is visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph imagery starting at 18:00 UTC on April 23rd. The CME is propagating to the south-west and has an estimated projected velocity around 400 km/s. The eruption appears related to the M2.9 flare, peak time 17:44 UTC on April 23rd, produced by NOAA AR 3638. An associated type II radio emission was observed starting at 17:10 UTC on April 23rd with estimated velocity of 358 km/s. Analysis of this event suggests no to possibly very low impact on Earth late on April 27th. No other Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

Корональные отверстия

A small positive polarity mid-latitude coronal hole is currently residing on the central meridian in the southern hemisphere. The high speed stream emanating from it might arrive to Earth on April 27th- April 28th.

Солнечный ветер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of background slow solar wind regime. The solar wind velocity was mostly in the range between 350 km/s to 400 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was unremarkable with a maximum value of 6.4 nT and a minimum Bz of -5.7 nT. Around 06:00 UTC on April 24th the B field phi angle switched from the negative to the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to remain at these levels on April 24th with possible mild enhancements on April 25th - April 26th and further on April 27th-April 28th should any of the expected high speed streams arrive to Earth.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are expected throughout April 24th. Quiet to active conditions with chances for isolated minor storms are anticipated for late April 25th-April 28th.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to continue so over the next days, pending any fast eruptive solar activity.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV GOES 16 electron flux as measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24h. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 exceeded the1000 pfu threshold in the late UTC afternoon on April 23rd and is expected to repeat this pattern on April 24th. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 258, based on 16 stations.

Solar indices for 23 Apr 2024

Wolf number Catania	308
10cm solar flux	219
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	274 - Based on 20 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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