Просмотр архива за пятница, 17 мая 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 May 17 1232 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
17 May 2024	207	006
18 May 2024	204	006
19 May 2024	201	018

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low during the past 24 hours. The brightest flare was a C8 emitted today at 01:46 UTC by NOAA Active Region (AR) 3679 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma). The same AR produced most of the C-class flaring activity of the past 24 hours, namely another four flares. The large NOAA AR 3685 (magnetic configuration Beta-Gamma) produced two C-class flares and NOAA AR 3674 (magnetic configuration Beta, Catania sunspot group 3) one. For the next 24 hours, NOAA AR 3679 is expected to continue to produce C-class flares with a chance of an M-class flare. NOAA AR 3685 is expected to increase its activity, likely produce M-class flares, with a small chance of an X-class flare.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Солнечный ветер

The Solar Wind conditions were gradually returning to a slow wind regime, as the effects from the arrival of the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) yesterday are waning. The SW speed decreased from 470 km/s to 400 km/s and the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) dropped from 10 nT to 5 nT. The North-South magnetic component (Bz) fluctuated between -7 and 10 nT when still under the influence of the CME. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed away and towards the Sun in almost equal measure during the past 24 hours. A CME is expected to arrive in the next 24 hours and cause a significant effect.

Geomagnetism

In the past 24 hours the global geomagnetic conditions dropped from minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5- between 12:00-15:00 UTC) to quiet levels (as low as NOAA Kp 1+). During the same period the local conditions dropped from the active level (K BEL 4 between 12:00-18:00 UTC), to the quite level (K BEL 2). The expected arrival of a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is predicted to increase the geomagnetic levels to active or minor storm in the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, dropped below the 10 pfu threshold level during the last 24 hours. It is likely that it will continue its gradual drop in the next 24 hours, however, there is a small chance of a new proton event and an increase in flux above the alert level.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was at very low levels during the last 24 hours and is expected to to remain so during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at low levels during the past 24 hours and is expected to remain at these levels for the following 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 180, based on 17 stations.

Solar indices for 16 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	207
AK Chambon La Forêt	032
AK Wingst	025
Estimated Ap	026
Estimated international sunspot number	200 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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