Просмотр архива за среда, 29 мая 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 May 29 1245 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
29 May 2024	184	010
30 May 2024	195	007
31 May 2024	205	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours. The largest flare of the period was an M1.8 flare from Catania sunspot group 27 (NOAA AR 3695) with peak time 11:21 UTC. Further M-class flares, an M1.4 and M1.3, with peak times 06:45 UTC and 01:06 UTC on May 29, respectively were recorded from Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 3697). The other complex region on the disk, Catania sunspot group 22 (NOAA AR 3691), was stable and produced C-class flaring. The rest of the regions were quiet and either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours with C-class flares expected, M-class flares likely and a low probability for further X-class flares.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

Солнечный ветер

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime with speeds between 310 and 360 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field was stable around 6nT before showing a small jump to 8nT around 05:00 UTC followed by a gradual increase to values around 10nT. The Bz component was mostly positive with a minimum value of -1 nT. Generally slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue on May 29 and 30.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp 2 and Local K Bel 3). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly at quiet to unsettled levels on May 29 and 30.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10pfu threshold and is expected to remain so. There is a slight chance that the proton flux may increase due to strong flaring from NOAA ARs 3697 or 3691, but this is unlikely due to their current position.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold as measured by GOES 16. It is expected to remain below this threshold over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. The electron fluence is expected remain at nominal levels over the next day.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 155, based on 15 stations.

Solar indices for 28 May 2024

Wolf number Catania	164
10cm solar flux	166
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	005
Estimated international sunspot number	152 - Based on 21 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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