Просмотр архива за четверг, 7 ноября 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 Nov 07 1236 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
07 Nov 2024	266	008
08 Nov 2024	270	016
09 Nov 2024	266	013

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with 1 X-class flare and 13 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a X2.39 flare peaking on November 06 at 13:40 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883). The second largest flare was a M5.31 flare peaking on November 06 at 14:27 UTC, which was produced by NOAA Active Region 3889. A new region that rotates on the visible solar disk in the last 24 hours. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 305 (NOAA Active Region 3883) is the most magnetically complex active region (beta-gamma-delta) on disk and together with NOAA Active Region 3889 produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 309 (NOAA Active Region 3887) has started to rotate over the west limb. The solar flaring activity is likely to be at high levels over the coming days with C-class flares expected, M-class flares very likely and a chance for an X-class flare.

Выбросы корональной массы

A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) has been detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 07:36 UTC on November 07, which is associated with a filament eruption seen in SDO/AIA 304 around 05:25 UTC on November 07 near the west limb. Analysis of the CME is ongoing. Preliminary analysis suggests a velocity of around 900 km/s.

Корональные отверстия

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) declined to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 5 nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The solar wind velocity declined from 460 km/s to around 385 km/s. The phi- angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. There is a chance the solar wind condition will become enhanced over the next 24 hours due to a glancing blow arrival from a CME that was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 on November 04 and a possible high speed stream from the small negative polarity equatorial coronal hole.

Солнечный ветер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) declined to slow solar wind conditions. The interplanetary magnetic field, B, reached a maximum value of 5 nT with a minimum Bz of -5 nT. The solar wind velocity declined from 460 km/s to around 385 km/s. The phi- angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun), with periods in the negative sector. There is a low probability the solar wind condition will become enhanced over the next 24 hours due to a glancing blow arrival from a CME that was observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data at 00:36 on November 04.

Geomagnetism

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were locally quite to unsettled (K BEL 1-3) and globally quiet (Kp 1-2). Active geomagnetic conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 16 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so in the upcoming days. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal level and is expected to remain so in the next days.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 221, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 06 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	260
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	011
Estimated Ap	010
Estimated international sunspot number	210 - Based on 12 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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