Просмотр архива за четверг, 28 ноября 2024

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2024 Nov 28 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
28 Nov 2024	216	005
29 Nov 2024	205	006
30 Nov 2024	195	004

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with an M1.0 flare emitted from SIDC Sunspot Group 298 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 3901) on 27 Nov at 12:46 UTC. C-class flares of C6.0 or brighter were produced by: SIDC Sunspot Group 302 (NOAA AR 3910), SIDC Sunspot Group 322 (NOAA AR 3905), NOAA AR 3912, and an yet-unnamed AR at E90S05. More M-class flaring activity is expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from any of SIDC Sunspot Groups 302, 322, or 323 (NOAA AR 3906). Additionally, there is a chance of an X-class flare in the next 24 hours also from one of those three AR.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.

Корональные отверстия

A very small equatorial corona hole with positive polarity is currently crossing the solar central meridian. It is expected to have a minor effect to Earth's geomagnetic conditions on 1 Dec.

Солнечный ветер

The Solar Wind (SW) conditions remained in the slow SW regime during the last 24 hours. The SW speed varied between 350 km/h and 450 km/h in the last 24 hours. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) ranged between 5 and 8 nT and its North-South component (Bz) registered values between -6 and 7 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field phi angle was directed towards the Sun during the past 24 hours. The solar wind speed is expected to remain in the slow SW regime during the next 24 hours.

Geomagnetism

During the last 24 hours geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet (NOAA Kp 1- to 2+ and K BEL 1 to 2). In the next 24 hours they are expected to remain at quiet levels both globally and locally.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-18 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so. However, there is the possibility of a proton even in the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain below this threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 176, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 27 Nov 2024

Wolf number Catania	222
10cm solar flux	225
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Estimated Ap	004
Estimated international sunspot number	204 - Based on 14 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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