Просмотр архива за понедельник, 13 января 2025

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2025 Jan 13 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
13 Jan 2025	158	011
14 Jan 2025	160	019
15 Jan 2025	162	007

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours with several C-class flares. The largest flare was a C8.1-flare, with peak time 02:15 UTC on Jan 13 2025, from SIDC Sunspot Group 360 NOAA AR 3947 (beta-gamma). There are currently 7 numbered active regions on the visible disk. SIDC Sunspot group 360 (NOAA AR 3947) is the most complex AR (beta-gamma). The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the coming day with C-class flares expected and M-class flares probable and X-class flares unlikely.

Выбросы корональной массы

No new Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Корональные отверстия

A large east-west elongated negative polarity equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 87) started crossing the central meridian. A high-speed stream from this coronal hole may enhance the solar wind environment near Earth on Jan 16.

Солнечный ветер

The solar wind at the Earth is slow, with speeds around 420 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field has slightly risen to 13 nT with the Bz reaching a minimum value of -8 nT. Enhancements of the solar wind speed are expected in the next 24h, due to the potential arrival of the high-speed stream (HSS) associated with the coronal hole, which crossed the central meridian on 11 Jan 2025.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were mainly quiet over the past 24 hours, with an isolated active period in the beginning of Jan 13 2025, (NOAA Kp 4 and local K Belgium 4). Quiet to active conditions with possible isolated minor geomagnetic storm levels are expected for January 14.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next days.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, even if an increase was observed in the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain so.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 087, based on 14 stations.

Solar indices for 12 Jan 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	158
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	007
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	111 - Based on 19 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

Все время в UTC

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