Просмотр архива за пятница, 4 апреля 2025

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2025 Apr 04 1231 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
04 Apr 2025	179	034
05 Apr 2025	177	024
06 Apr 2025	175	017

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low, with only low-level C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. There are currently seven numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 461 (NOAA Active Region 4048; beta-gamma), which is the most magnetically complex active regions on the disk but remained stable over the past 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 455 (NOAA Active Region 4043; beta) is now approaching the west limb. Solar flaring activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images.

Солнечный ветер

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were slightly disturbed probably due to the arrival of a high-speed stream from a negative polarity coronal hole that began crossing the central meridian on April 1. The interplanetary magnetic field reached values of up to 14 nT, and the solar wind speed increased from values about 420 km/s to 540 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -11 nT and 10 nT. The magnetic field orientation has switched orientation from the positive to the negative sector (directed towards the Sun). Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly elevated over the days with the ongoing high-speed stream influence.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours reached minor storm levels between 18:00 UTC and 00:00 UTC on April 3, both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 5-; K-Bel: 5). Active conditions are expected over the next day, with a possible isolated minor storm period in response to the arrival of the high-speed stream.

Proton flux levels

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was slightly elevated, remaining well below radiation storm levels. The proton flux is expected to gradually return to nominal levels over the next few days, with a chance of exceeding minor storm levels if any high-energy flares or eruptions occur.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18, was below the 1000 pfu threshold and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal to moderate levels and is expected to remain at normal levels over the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 185, based on 22 stations.

Solar indices for 03 Apr 2025

Wolf number Catania	181
10cm solar flux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	023
Estimated Ap	025
Estimated international sunspot number	157 - Based on 30 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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