Просмотр архива за понедельник, 10 ноября 2025

Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2025 Nov 10 1247 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Солнечные протоны

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm flux	Ap
10 Nov 2025	173	007
11 Nov 2025	173	007
12 Nov 2025	173	023

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with one X-class flare and several C-class flares. The largest was an X1.2 event (SIDC Flare 6010) that peaked on 10 November at 09:19 UTC, produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274) at N24W15. Eight numbered sunspot groups were present on the disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA 4274) is the largest and most magnetically complex region on the disk (Beta-Gamma-Delta; McIntosh Ekc) and remained the primary source of significant activity, producing the X-class and multiple C-class flares. SIDC Sunspot Groups 689 (NOAA Active Region 4276) and 690 (NOAA Active Region 4277), both with Beta magnetic configurations, produced several C-class flares and have been decreasing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance of X-class flares.

Выбросы корональной массы

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) has been identified in the currently available coronagraph imagery. However, the X1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6010) that peaked at 09:19 UTC from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA AR 4274) showed Type IV radio emission, a signature often linked to major eruptions and strong CMEs. An Earth-directed component is therefore plausible, pending confirmation from ongoing coronagraph analysis.

Корональные отверстия

SIDC Coronal Hole 126, an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity, has reappeared on the disk and is currently situated on the western side of the Sun.

Солнечный ветер

Over the past 24 hours the flow was variable and the speed remained moderately elevated, ranging from 455 to 595 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic field stayed below 8 nT, with Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic was between +7 and -6 nT, including several southward intervals near -6 nT. The phi angle fluctuated between the negative sector (toward the Sun) and the positive sector. Over the next 48 hours conditions are expected to become disturbed due to a possible glancing blow from the coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 597), which left the Sun on 07 November around 12:48 UTC, followed shortly after, or possibly around the same time, by the arrival of the Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 598) associated with the X1.8 flare, with an estimated arrival near 07:12 UTC on 12 November.

Geomagnetism

Global conditions were quiet to unsettled. NOAA Kp briefly reached 3, and the Belgian K index peaked at 3 before easing to 1-2 later this morning UTC. Over the next 24 hours, quiet to unsettled levels are most likely, with isolated short-lived active intervals possible if Bz turns persistently southward. Additional disturbances remain possible around 12 November from a glancing blow of coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 597, launched 07 Nov around 12:48 UTC) and the potential arrival of the Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 598) associated with the X1.8 flare, with an estimated arrival near 07:12 UTC on 12 November.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux stayed at background until about 09:40 UTC, then rose promptly following the X1.2 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 687 at 09:19 UTC. It reached event levels shortly after 10:00 UTC and was still increasing at the time of writing.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The GOES-18 >2 MeV electron flux remained below the 1000 pfu threshold throughout the period. The 24-hour fluence is at normal levels and is expected to stay mostly normal over the next 24 hours, with only brief enhancements possible if the solar wind strengthens ahead of the anticipated CME influences on 11–12 Nov.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 160, based on 13 stations.

Solar indices for 09 Nov 2025

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	176
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Estimated Ap	007
Estimated international sunspot number	164 - Based on 23 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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