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Daily bulletin on solar and geomagnetic activity from the SIDC

Существующий: 2026 May 03 1249 UTC

SIDC Forecast

Солнечные вспышки

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetism

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Солнечные протоны

Quiet

	10cm flux	Ap
03 May 2026	157	016
04 May 2026	155	034
05 May 2026	153	026

Solar Active Regions and flaring

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. The largest flare was a C8.7 flare (SIDC Flare 7598) peaking on May 02 at 18:38 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 847 (NOAA Active Region 4420). During the flare, the source region (SIDC Sunspot Group 847) of the flare had beta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares expected and possibly M-class flares.

Выбросы корональной массы

A coronal mass ejections (CME) was first observed in SOHO/LASCO-C2 images around 11:12 UTC on May 02. It was associated to an eruption closer to SIDC Sunspot Group 851 (NOAA Active Region 4424) region. With an angular width of about 90 deg and a projected speed of about 425 km/s (as detected and measured by the Cactus tool), this CME is not expected to arrive at the Earth. A filament erupted in the S hemisphere around 20:00 UTC on May 02, but no associated CME was found in the available SOHO/LASCO-C2 images. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during the last 24 hours.

Солнечный ветер

Solar wind conditions have transitioned from fast to slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged between 385 km/s and 480 km/s. The North-South component (Bz) ranged between -6 and 5 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field has decreased from 1 nT to 6 nT. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, unless the high speed streams from the negative polarity, recurrent coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 142), which crossed the central meridian during Apr 29 - May 02, arrives at Earth.

Geomagnetism

Geomagnetic conditions were globally and locally quiet to unsettled levels (NOAA Kp and K BEL 1 to 3). In the next 24 hours, active to minor storm conditions (K 4 to 5) are possible if the high speed streams from the SIDC Coronal Hole 142, which crossed the central meridian during Apr 29 - May 02 (negative polarity), arrives at Earth.

Proton flux levels

The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours. Any major eruption from the SIDC Sunspot Group 851 (NOAA Active Regions 4424), during the next 24 hours, could be possibly associated with a proton event.

Electron fluxes at geostationary orbit

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-19 and GOES-18 satellites, remained below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at moderate level and is expected to be at normal to moderate in the next 24 hours.

Today's estimated international sunspot number (ISN): 130, based on 07 stations.

Solar indices for 02 May 2026

Wolf number Catania	///
10cm solar flux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	009
Estimated Ap	008
Estimated international sunspot number	143 - Based on 27 stations

Noticeable events summary

Provided by the Solar Influences Data analysis Center© - SIDC - Processed by SpaceWeatherLive

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